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Prediction for CME (2021-11-29T10:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-11-29T10:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18391/-1
CME Note: The source of this CME is a filament eruption centered around S25E10. The filament eruption is visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-11-29T08:00Z. It is also visible as dimming in SDO AIA 193. Arrival indicated by sudden but weak Bx-By field component rotation accompanied by weak pileup. Followed by field component rotation indicating a flux rope, beginning 2021-12-04T20:12Z. From Teresa: there are signatures of ICME starting at 12 UT of Dec 4 and flux rope signatures right at 20 UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-04T11:51Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-02T05:52Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-11-29 15:44
 -  Time at C2: 2021-11-29 10:38
 - Radial speed: 600.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: S19E05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 586.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-12-02 05:52 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.23 hours)

KP= [3.0 - 4.0]

Lead Time: 112.65 hour(s)
Difference: 53.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-11-29T19:12Z

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